Cádiz vs Ceuta
Our model puts a Cádiz win at 47.7% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.51 to 1.05.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1474 against 1500, a gap of 27 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Ceuta manage 8.9 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Cádiz collect 4 cards a match, on 12.5 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
72.2% of Cádiz's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
53.8% of the shots on target Ceuta face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.