AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente
Our model puts an AZ Alkmaar win at 62.4% in this Eredivisie fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.91 to 0.82.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 379 fixtures in that band. That is 9.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AZ Alkmaar's attack should find room against FC Twente's defence, by 97 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
FC Twente are hard to beat
FC Twente have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Finding the target
AZ Alkmaar hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
AZ Alkmaar take 18.1 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target AZ Alkmaar face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.