Aris vs Atromitos
Our model puts an Aris win at 87.3% in this Greek Super League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 3.2 to 0.49.
The ratings gap
Aris carry a rating of 1619 against 1496 for Atromitos, a gap of 122 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Aris's attack should find room against Atromitos's defence, by 105 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Aris take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
40% of Atromitos's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 15 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 86.1%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.