Aldosivi vs Belgrano (Córdoba)

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:45

Win probability

24%

Aldosivi wins

23%

Draw

54%

Belgrano (Córdoba) wins

xG Home

1.17

Aldosivi

Blowout %

26%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.89

Belgrano (Córdoba)

Analysis

Our model puts a Belgrano (Córdoba) win at 53.7% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.17 to 1.89.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Belgrano (Córdoba) are on a run

Belgrano (Córdoba) arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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