AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans
Our model puts an AJ Auxerre win at 58.6% in this Ligue 1 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.82 to 0.91.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 379 fixtures in that band. That is 9.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Le Mans at 3.25, which implies about 30.8%. Our model has it at 18.5% — 12.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AJ Auxerre's attack should find room against Le Mans's defence, by 127 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Le Mans hits the target more often than almost anyone: 44.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
33.3% of Le Mans's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.