York City vs Port Vale
Our model puts a York City win at 43.6% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.44 to 1.15.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Port Vale are off their season peak
Port Vale peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1447 today, 53 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
76.9% of Port Vale's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.