Vitória vs Athletico Paranaense

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 19:30

Win probability

38%

Vitória wins

28%

Draw

34%

Athletico Paranaense wins

xG Home

1.24

Vitória

Blowout %

34%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.15

Athletico Paranaense

Analysis

Our model puts a Vitória win at 38.3% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.15.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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