Toulouse vs Troyes
Our model puts a Toulouse win at 68.9% in this Ligue 1 fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.1 to 0.71.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.6% of the time — 180 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Troyes at 4.6, which implies about 21.7%. Our model has it at 11.7% — 10 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Toulouse carry a rating of 1660 against 1528 for Troyes, a gap of 132 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Toulouse's attack should find room against Troyes's defence, by 148 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Troyes struggles to hit the target: 26% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
70.6% of Toulouse's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.