Talleres (Córdoba) vs Defensa y Justicia

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

32%

Talleres (Córdoba) wins

25%

Draw

44%

Defensa y Justicia wins

xG Home

1.31

Talleres (Córdoba)

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.59

Defensa y Justicia

Analysis

Our model puts a Defensa y Justicia win at 43.6% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.31 to 1.59.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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