Sudtirol vs Sampdoria
Our model puts a Sudtirol win at 54% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.7 to 0.98.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Sampdoria are off their season peak
Sampdoria peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1436 today, 64 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
87.5% of Sampdoria's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 8 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
82.1% of the shots on target Sudtirol face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.