Stoke City vs Bristol City

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 14:00

Win probability

40%

Stoke City wins

28%

Draw

33%

Bristol City wins

xG Home

1.28

Stoke City

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.13

Bristol City

Analysis

Our model puts a Stoke City win at 39.9% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.28 to 1.13.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1504 against 1531, a gap of 28 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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