SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburg SV

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 13:30

Win probability

55%

SC Paderborn 07 wins

23%

Draw

22%

Hamburg SV wins

xG Home

1.80

SC Paderborn 07

Blowout %

46%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.05

Hamburg SV

Analysis

Our model puts a SC Paderborn 07 win at 54.6% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.8 to 1.05.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1592 against 1601, a gap of 8 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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