Samsunspor vs Amed SFK
Our model puts a Samsunspor win at 59.2% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 2.07 to 1.09.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.1% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 9.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
How often they shoot
Samsunspor take 14.8 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.