Saint-Étienne vs Nantes
Our model puts a Saint-Étienne win at 51.9% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.62 to 0.99.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Nantes are off their season peak
Nantes peaked at 1575 this season and sit at 1529 today, 46 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
36.4% of Saint-Étienne's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 22 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target Nantes face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.