Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley
Our model puts a Rochdale win at 41.3% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.34 to 1.13.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Rochdale are off their season peak
Rochdale peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1363 today, 137 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Rochdale manage 8.8 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.