Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Our model puts a Rayo Vallecano win at 55.1% in this La Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.72 to 0.95.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.1% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 9.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Elche collect 3.2 cards a match, on 14.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
57.1% of the shots on target Elche face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.