Racing Santander vs Espanyol
Our model puts a Racing Santander win at 39.1% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.25.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1607 against 1628, a gap of 21 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Espanyol's attack should find room against Racing Santander's defence, by 174 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
75.8% of the shots on target Espanyol face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.