Queens Park Rangers vs Swansea City

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 14:00

Win probability

35%

Queens Park Rangers wins

27%

Draw

38%

Swansea City wins

xG Home

1.23

Queens Park Rangers

Blowout %

23%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.31

Swansea City

Analysis

Our model puts a Swansea City win at 38.4% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.31.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Swansea City are on a run

Swansea City arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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