Preston North End vs West Bromwich Albion

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 14:00

Win probability

37%

Preston North End wins

27%

Draw

36%

West Bromwich Albion wins

xG Home

1.27

Preston North End

Blowout %

26%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.26

West Bromwich Albion

Analysis

Our model puts a Preston North End win at 36.8% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.26.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Preston North End are off their season peak

Preston North End peaked at 1520 this season and sit at 1466 today, 54 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export