Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 21:30

Win probability

68%

Palmeiras wins

19%

Draw

13%

Red Bull Bragantino wins

xG Home

2.22

Palmeiras

Blowout %

58%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.84

Red Bull Bragantino

Analysis

Our model puts a Palmeiras win at 67.9% in this Brasileirao fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.22 to 0.84.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.6% of the time — 180 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Palmeiras are on a run

Palmeiras arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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