Oxford United vs Bradford City

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 14:00

Win probability

41%

Oxford United wins

27%

Draw

32%

Bradford City wins

xG Home

1.33

Oxford United

Blowout %

25%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.13

Bradford City

Analysis

Our model puts an Oxford United win at 41.1% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.13.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Bradford City are hard to beat

Bradford City have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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