Notts County vs Stockport County
Our model puts a Notts County win at 39.4% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.29 to 1.17.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Stockport County's attack should find room against Notts County's defence, by 92 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
58.3% of the shots on target Notts County face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.