Necaxa vs FC Juárez

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 01:00

Win probability

46%

Necaxa wins

24%

Draw

29%

FC Juárez wins

xG Home

1.66

Necaxa

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.26

FC Juárez

Analysis

Our model puts a Necaxa win at 46.4% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 1.26.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1475 against 1459, a gap of 16 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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