Napoli vs AS Roma
Our model puts an AS Roma win at 37.3% in this Serie A fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.27.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price AS Roma at 2.3, which implies about 43.5%. Our model has it at 37.3% — 6.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AS Roma's attack should find room against Napoli's defence, by 120 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
AS Roma take 16 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
42.1% of Napoli's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 19 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
88.2% of the shots on target AS Roma face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.