Mainz vs Werder Bremen
Our model puts a Mainz win at 48.9% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.68 to 1.18.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Mainz at 1.62, which implies about 61.7%. Our model has it at 48.9% — 12.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Mainz's attack should find room against Werder Bremen's defence, by 108 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Mainz take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
76.5% of Werder Bremen's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.