Leganés vs Mallorca
Our model puts a Mallorca win at 46.8% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.02 to 1.45.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Mallorca carry a rating of 1640 against 1541 for Leganes, a gap of 100 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.