Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II
Our model puts a Las Palmas win at 68.4% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.26 to 0.85.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.6% of the time — 180 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Las Palmas's attack should find room against Real Sociedad II's defence, by 90 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.