Kashima Antlers vs Kashiwa Reysol

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 06:00

Win probability

48%

Kashima Antlers wins

22%

Draw

30%

Kashiwa Reysol wins

xG Home

1.96

Kashima Antlers

Blowout %

56%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.51

Kashiwa Reysol

Analysis

Our model puts a Kashima Antlers win at 47.7% in this Japanese J.League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.96 to 1.51.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1511 against 1497, a gap of 14 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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