Internacional vs Botafogo

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 19:30

Win probability

50%

Internacional wins

25%

Draw

26%

Botafogo wins

xG Home

1.66

Internacional

Blowout %

52%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.12

Botafogo

Analysis

Our model puts an Internacional win at 49.6% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 1.12.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1490 against 1484, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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