Gillingham vs Grimsby Town
Our model puts a Gillingham win at 40.4% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.36 to 1.2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Grimsby Town carry a rating of 1506 against 1409 for Gillingham, a gap of 97 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Grimsby Town's attack should find room against Gillingham's defence, by 90 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Gillingham are off their season peak
Gillingham peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1409 today, 91 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
83.3% of Gillingham's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.