FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Our model puts a FC Utrecht win at 57% in this Eredivisie fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.97 to 1.1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.1% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 9.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1504 against 1488, a gap of 16 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, FC Utrecht's attack should find room against PEC Zwolle's defence, by 110 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.