FC Cologne vs Schalke 04
Our model puts a Schalke 04 win at 38.6% in this Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.32.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price FC Cologne at 2.0, which implies about 50%. Our model has it at 34.6% — 15.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, FC Cologne's attack should find room against Schalke 04's defence, by 90 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
76.5% of the shots on target Schalke 04 face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.