FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Our model puts a FC Augsburg win at 63.6% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.06 to 0.9.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.1% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 9.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price 1. FC Union Berlin at 3.45, which implies about 29%. Our model has it at 15.7% — 13.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, FC Augsburg's attack should find room against 1. FC Union Berlin's defence, by 106 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
FC Augsburg hits the target more often than almost anyone: 45.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; 1. FC Union Berlin hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
75% of 1. FC Union Berlin's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.