Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
Our model puts an Exeter City win at 47% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1467 against 1443, a gap of 24 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Fleetwood Town are off their season peak
Fleetwood Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1443 today, 57 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.