Doncaster Rovers vs Sheffield Wednesday
Our model puts a Doncaster Rovers win at 51% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.59 to 1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Sheffield Wednesday are hard to beat
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Sheffield Wednesday are off their season peak
Sheffield Wednesday peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1437 today, 63 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.