Dijon FCO vs Rodez Aveyron

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 12:00

Win probability

38%

Dijon FCO wins

24%

Draw

38%

Rodez Aveyron wins

xG Home

1.59

Dijon FCO

Blowout %

50%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.58

Rodez Aveyron

Analysis

Our model puts a Dijon FCO win at 38.3% in this Ligue 2 fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.59 to 1.58.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1494 against 1522, a gap of 29 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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