D.C. United vs FC Cincinnati

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 23:30

Win probability

48%

D.C. United wins

24%

Draw

27%

FC Cincinnati wins

xG Home

1.68

D.C. United

Blowout %

41%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.20

FC Cincinnati

Analysis

Our model puts a D.C. United win at 48.4% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.68 to 1.2.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1498 against 1503, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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