Coventry City vs Fulham
Our model puts a Fulham win at 41.6% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.21 to 1.42.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Fulham carry a rating of 1711 against 1607 for Coventry City, a gap of 104 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Fulham's attack should find room against Coventry City's defence, by 127 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Coventry City hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Fulham struggles to hit the target: 26.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
33.3% of Fulham's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 9 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.