Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 19:30

Win probability

54%

Columbus Crew wins

22%

Draw

24%

Toronto FC wins

xG Home

1.94

Columbus Crew

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.19

Toronto FC

Analysis

Our model puts a Columbus Crew win at 54.1% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.94 to 1.19.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1482 against 1485, a gap of 3 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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