Charlton Athletic vs Norwich City

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 11:30

Win probability

37%

Charlton Athletic wins

26%

Draw

37%

Norwich City wins

xG Home

1.34

Charlton Athletic

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.35

Norwich City

Analysis

Our model puts a Norwich City win at 37.1% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.34 to 1.35.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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