Chapecoense vs Fluminense
Our model puts a Fluminense win at 56.5% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.15 to 2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Chapecoense are off their season peak
Chapecoense peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1455 today, 45 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.