CF Montréal vs Nashville SC
Our model puts a Nashville SC win at 60% in this MLS fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.16 to 2.2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.1% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 9.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Nashville SC are on a run
Nashville SC arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.