Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 11:30

Win probability

51%

Bristol Rovers wins

25%

Draw

24%

Swindon Town wins

xG Home

1.60

Bristol Rovers

Blowout %

43%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.02

Swindon Town

Analysis

Our model puts a Bristol Rovers win at 50.6% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.6 to 1.02.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1461 against 1469, a gap of 8 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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