Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham
Our model puts a Blackburn Rovers win at 46% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.42 to 1.02.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1548 against 1567, a gap of 19 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Behind the defence
59.1% of the shots on target Wrexham face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.