Asteras Tripoli vs Levadiakos

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 16:30

Win probability

63%

Asteras Tripoli wins

22%

Draw

16%

Levadiakos wins

xG Home

1.94

Asteras Tripoli

Blowout %

46%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.84

Levadiakos

Analysis

Our model puts an Asteras Tripoli win at 62.7% in this Greek Super League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.94 to 0.84.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.1% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 9.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export