Arsenal vs Everton
Our model puts an Arsenal win at 76.2% in this Premier League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.34 to 0.58.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 81.2% of the time — 69 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Arsenal carry a rating of 2018 against 1762 for Everton, a gap of 256 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Everton's attack will struggle to break down Arsenal's defence, by 173 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Everton are hard to beat
Everton have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Finding the target
Everton hits the target more often than almost anyone: 42.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
38.9% of Arsenal's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 74.1%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.