Antwerp vs Royal Charleroi SC
Our model puts an Antwerp win at 48.3% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.7 to 1.22.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1570 against 1543, a gap of 27 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Royal Charleroi SC are on a run
Royal Charleroi SC arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.