AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe Wanderers

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 14:00

Win probability

41%

AFC Wimbledon wins

27%

Draw

32%

Wycombe Wanderers wins

xG Home

1.33

AFC Wimbledon

Blowout %

34%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.14

Wycombe Wanderers

Analysis

Our model puts an AFC Wimbledon win at 41.1% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.14.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 700 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

AFC Wimbledon are off their season peak

AFC Wimbledon peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1435 today, 65 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export