1. FC Nürnberg vs Kaiserslautern

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 18:30

Win probability

51%

1. FC Nürnberg wins

25%

Draw

24%

Kaiserslautern wins

xG Home

1.61

1. FC Nürnberg

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.01

Kaiserslautern

Analysis

Our model puts a 1. FC Nürnberg win at 51.1% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.61 to 1.01.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,904 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 580 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.4%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

1. FC Nürnberg are hard to beat

1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Published 17 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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