VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg
Our model puts a VfL Wolfsburg win at 39% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.32 to 1.4.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, VfL Wolfsburg's attack should find room against VfL Bochum's defence, by 113 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
VfL Bochum collect 3.4 cards a match, on 13.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.